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Donald Trump’s primary victories and imminent nomination as Republican presidential candidate took pundits, public relations and marketing experts by surprise.
If anyone should have predicted Trump’s success, it’s PR pros. After all, politics is a type of public relations. Voters are the candidates’ publics.
Trump’s unexpected success points to common PR measurement shortcomings, says Joseph Cabosky, an assistant professor of public relations at the University of North Carolina. PR pros could have predicted his victory if they had considered the right data. Cabosky cites three PR measurement lessons in an article for PRSA’s Public Relations Tactics.
Never mind the majority. National polls showed the majority of voters opposed Trump. He garnered a 35 percent approval rating and 57 percent of Americans opposed his proposal to ban Muslims from entering the U.S. Yet he won with 11 million votes, less than 4 percent of the American population. Lesson #1: Brands or organizations rarely need to convince the majority; reaching the right public is the critical element in success.
Successful PR measurement, Cabosky advises, requires tailoring measurement to your organization’s different publics.
Measure social media. Trump received extensive news coverage – most of it negative. PR frequently counts media mentions. However, few news outlets attract even 1 percent of viewers. Few people actually read The New York Times or watch the news programs. They obtain information from a range of sources. With over 8 million Twitter followers and 7 million Facebook followers, Trump has the potential to reach more people than any cable news program. Lesson #2: Trump’s social media success underscores the need to include social media in PR measurement.
Traditional news media companies have lost the power to control or direct public opinion. During the same-sex marriage debate in 2013, coverage by traditional media favored pro-equality views. However, discussions on social media were far more polarized and reflected overall public sentiment.
Examine the right metrics. Pundits said candidates with the most endorsements would win. They said those with the most fundraising would win. They said outsider candidates never maintain their lead.
While based on historical precedent, those predictions are based on a small sample size. Since a presidential election occurs every four years, we have only five comparables in a 20-year period. The majority of those elections occurred before the popularity of social media took hold. Meanwhile, straightforward survey data of GOP-voting demographic groups, showed Trump’s approaching victory.
Lesson #3: Trust the data if it applies to the questions and the public involved.
The Target Audience
Other PR experts agree that Trump proved expert in addressing his target audience. “He knows whom he is speaking to, and what they want to hear. Similarly, your company should address your target audience, and create content to attract their interest,” says Wendy Alpine, president of Alpine Communications.
Trump also skillfully employed simple messages and controversy to gain free media attention, she adds.
However, other PR measurement experts say Trump’s campaign demonstrates that advertising value equivalencies (AVEs), which value PR by comparing earned media placements to advertising space, is a faulty PR measurement metric. The real estate mogul did receive far more media coverage than other candidates, resulting in extraordinarily high AVEs. According to a New York Times analysis of mediaQuant data, Trump’s campaign received almost $2 billion of media coverage as of March 1.
However, much if not most of that coverage was negative and should be excluded in calculations of equivalent advertising value. Advertising, pretty much by definition, contains no negative messages with the possible exception of the required adverse events explanations attached to pharmaceutical advertising. Earned media coverage containing negative messages cannot be assessed as equal to or greater than paid media placements that are totally positive.
Bottom Line: Trump’s victorious campaign blindsided PR experts and exposed common shortcomings of PR measurement. Unfortunately, many brands continue to follow those outdated and misconceived strategies. Successful PR measurement requires including social media, tailoring measurement to specific target audiences, and developing analysis that applies to the right audience and campaign.
William J. Comcowich founded and served as CEO of CyberAlert LLC, the predecessor of Glean.info. He is currently serving as Interim CEO and member of the Board of Directors. Glean.info provides customized media monitoring, media measurement and analytics solutions across all types of traditional and social media.
